Fall Break 2021: The Tale of Optimistic vs. Accurate Rates
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2025 10:09 am
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As we put a bow on the Summer season of 2021, the short-term & vacation rental market is basking in the glow of record-setting occupancy levels and rates.
Now that the industry is riding high off the bullish summer market, lots of property managers around the country are wondering what’s next as we move into the second half of the year.
While we won’t share our full forward prediction just yet, we wanted to focus on the next major indicator: Fall Break.
ADRs Are High, But Booking Pace Has Slowed Down
Average daily rates (ADRs) have been steadily building through 2021, with summer rates coming in over 20% of what we saw in 2019.
Source: Beyond Data
Property managers have kept their Fall prices high—in hopes of continuing b2b email list the elevated ADR streak from the summer—and the reservations being made are still roughly 25% higher than 2019.
There’s something happening in the market, however, that’s caught our attention: the lag in booking pace.
Overall booking pace, using the number of reservations per listing as an indicator of demand, has fallen below the same time last year in almost every major market. While demand is not extending into the Fall months the same way it did in 2020, the vast majority of property managers are keeping their “optimistic” rates in place.
As we put a bow on the Summer season of 2021, the short-term & vacation rental market is basking in the glow of record-setting occupancy levels and rates.
Now that the industry is riding high off the bullish summer market, lots of property managers around the country are wondering what’s next as we move into the second half of the year.
While we won’t share our full forward prediction just yet, we wanted to focus on the next major indicator: Fall Break.
ADRs Are High, But Booking Pace Has Slowed Down
Average daily rates (ADRs) have been steadily building through 2021, with summer rates coming in over 20% of what we saw in 2019.
Source: Beyond Data
Property managers have kept their Fall prices high—in hopes of continuing b2b email list the elevated ADR streak from the summer—and the reservations being made are still roughly 25% higher than 2019.
There’s something happening in the market, however, that’s caught our attention: the lag in booking pace.
Overall booking pace, using the number of reservations per listing as an indicator of demand, has fallen below the same time last year in almost every major market. While demand is not extending into the Fall months the same way it did in 2020, the vast majority of property managers are keeping their “optimistic” rates in place.